Autonomes Fahren

Todesfall in Arizona (USA) – Gibt es eine Zukunft für autonomes Fahren?

Das autonome Fahren ist ein Zukunftstraum, den viele mit Science-Fiction-Filmen verbinden. Doch er könnte bald Realität werden und unser aller Leben massiv beeinflussen. Schon heute fahren die ersten Autos, nur mit einem Sicherheitsfahrer bemannt, durch die Straßen der amerikanischen Großstädte. Doch inwiefern ist diese Technik bereit für die kommerzielle Verwendung? Und was bringt es uns nicht mehr selbst am Steuer zu sitzen?

Der Weg zur Nutzung im Alltag ist lang

Dafür müsste Vision zur Realität werden.

General Motors geht voraus und möchte 2019 ein Elektroauto ohne Lenkrad und Pedale serienreif machen. Zielgruppe sollen nicht Privatkunden sein, sondern Taxidienste und Ride-Sharing-Anbieter wie Uber. Dieser testet bereits selber an autonomen Fahrzeugen in mehreren Großstädten der USA und Kanada und hatte das Ziel im Dezember 2018 einen kommerziellen Fahrdienst mit selbstfahrenden Autos auf den Markt zubringen. Dieses Ziel scheint seit einem tödlichen Unfall in Arizona mit einem der Testfahrzeuge unrealistisch. Seitdem sind alle Testfahrten von Uber ausgesetzt worden und in den USA wird nun erneut darüber diskutiert, ob die Technik schon reif für Tests in Großstädten ist. General Motors muss sein autonomes Fahrzeug noch testen und hat eine Sondergenehmigung dafür beantragt. Das sich, nach dem Unfall, die Genehmigung des Antrags durch die amerikanischen Behörden hinziehen wird, hemmt den Automobil-Riesen.  

Nichtsdestotrotz sehen die meisten Experten und Automobilhersteller, aber auch Internet-Größen, wie Google, die Zukunft in dieser Branche. Laut BMW-Manager Christoph Grote wird es aber noch etwas dauern, da die Situation des autonomen Fahrens erst mit Sammlung und Vernetzung der Daten von anderen Autos und der Infrastruktur sicherer und einfacher wird.

Einsparungen in Billionenhöhe werden erwartet

Sollte das autonome Fahren aber reif für den Alltag sein, winken uns nach einer Bilanz von Schweizer Experten Einsparungen in Höhe von mehreren Billionen Euro weltweit:

Weniger Verbrauch und Unfälle, niedrigere Betriebskosten und mehr verfügbare Zeit sind die Folgen davon, dass das Auto sich selbst steuern wird. Aber auch die Experten gehen von einer Abnahme der Privatkäufe aus. Robotaxis, die Rund um die Uhr für 3 Cent pro Kilometer zur Verfügung stehen, bei Werbung im Taxi möglicherweise sogar kostenlos, sind die Zukunft der Branche. Vor allem in der Stadt.

 

Im Endeffekt würde das bedeuten, Menschen könnten die Zeit, die sie sonst mit Parkplatzsuche, Stau und trister Autobahnfahrt vergeudet haben, für sich oder die Arbeit nutzen. Bei einem Wert von 10 Euro die Stunde würde alleine die zeitliche Komponente eine Einsparung von 4 Billionen Euro bedeuten.

Autohändler müssen auf der Hut sein

Autohändler sollten sich durch diese Entwicklung nicht ins schwitzen bringen lassen. Zwar werden einerseits weniger Autos an private Kunden verkauft, doch wird dies durch die Verkäufe an Flotten, Taxiunternehmen und Internetgrößen kompensiert. Nach einer puls Studie werden Autohändler sogar signifikant an Bedeutung gewinnen. Dazu müssen sich diese aber den Gegebenheiten anpassen und dürfen sich nicht von neuen Trends abschrecken lassen. So behauptet der Chief Digital Officer von VW, Johann Jungwirth, dass das “Mobility-as-a-Service”-Modell eine tragende Rolle in der Zukunft spielen wird. Es spricht vor allem die Instandhaltung, Reparatur und Reinigung von Autoflotten an. Autohändler werden zukünftig also nicht nur Autos verkaufen, sondern sich auch im großen Stil um deren Instandhaltung kümmern müssen.

Nach Andreas Herrmann von der Universität St. Gallen wird es aber, vor allem in Europa noch dauern, bis das autonome Fahren sich etabliert hat – gesetzlich wie auch in der Bevölkerung. Gemeinsame Standards zu Kommunikation unter Autos und zwischen Auto und Infrastruktur müssen in der EU festgelegt werden. Das dauert.

In USA und Asien hingegen werden vermutlich schon bald autonome Autos zu einer ernstzunehmenden Alternative.

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